Philadelphia Phillies Home Favorite on Zero Rest Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Philadelphia Phillies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Philadelphia Phillies are just 8-44-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -70.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +70.6%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2015 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2018 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2021 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2023 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2024 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Phillies' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from a franchise culture that has historically struggled with pressure management and lineup optimization during compressed schedules. Philadelphia's offensive approach relies heavily on power hitting and patient plate appearances, both of which deteriorate significantly when players haven't had adequate recovery time. The team's veterans, particularly during their competitive windows, have shown a pattern of pressing at the plate when expectations are highest, leading to extended at-bats that paradoxically work against them in fatigue situations. Managerially, the Phillies have consistently made questionable bullpen decisions when operating on short rest, often overusing their best relievers in the previous game and leaving themselves vulnerable in late-inning situations. The organization's medical and conditioning staff has also lagged behind more progressive franchises in implementing recovery protocols that would better prepare players for back-to-back home games where fan expectations run high. The psychological weight of being favored at Citizens Bank Park while physically compromised creates a perfect storm for underperformance. Bettors should target Philadelphia's opponents in these spots, particularly when the Phillies are coming off emotionally draining games. This trend carries the most weight during summer months and playoff races when fatigue compounds with organizational pressure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philadelphia Phillies's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?
The Philadelphia Phillies have an 8-44-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 15.4% ATS win rate across 52 games.
Is betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as home favorite on zero rest profitable?
No, betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable. The trend shows a -70.6% ROI, indicating significant losses for bettors following this pattern.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically perform around 50% ATS. The Phillies' 15.4% ATS rate in this situation represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.