The data suggests caution when backing the Philadelphia Phillies in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Philadelphia Phillies are just 15-86-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -71.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +71.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record15-86-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size102 games
ROI-71.7%
Units Won-72.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-9-00.0%-65.3%
20150-4-10.0%-100.0%
20161-6-00.0%-72.7%
20171-12-00.0%-85.3%
20181-4-00.0%-61.8%
20193-8-00.0%-47.9%
20201-8-00.0%-78.8%
20210-5-00.0%-100.0%
20221-5-00.0%-68.2%
20232-12-00.0%-72.7%
20243-13-00.0%-64.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Phillies' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a toxic combination of psychological fragility and organizational inconsistency that has plagued the franchise for over a decade. Philadelphia teams have historically carried the weight of fan expectations poorly, and this manifests most acutely when they're expected to bounce back on hostile territory. The pressure of being favored away from home after already disappointing creates a mental burden that compounds their on-field execution issues. Strategically, the Phillies have consistently shown poor roster construction for road success, often building lineups heavy on pull hitters who struggle in unfamiliar ballparks with different dimensions. Their pitching staff depth has been questionable throughout most seasons in this sample, meaning losses often expose weaknesses that carry into the next game. The team's tendency to overreact to adversity - whether through lineup tinkering or bullpen mismanagement - becomes amplified in road environments where comfort zones don't exist. The actionable insight here is clear: fade Philadelphia aggressively in this spot, particularly when they're moderate favorites (-130 to -160) rather than heavy chalk. The market consistently overvalues their ability to respond to adversity away from Citizens Bank Park. This trend matters most during divisional road series and weekend games when public betting inflates their line value.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philadelphia Phillies's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 15-86-1 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 0.0% win rate against the spread in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Philadelphia Phillies as away favorites after a loss is not profitable. This betting strategy has resulted in a -71.7% ROI over the 2014-2024 period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average for away favorites after a loss. The Phillies' 0.0% ATS win rate in this situation represents one of the worst trends in baseball betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.