The data suggests caution when backing the New York Yankees in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the New York Yankees are just 24-48-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -36.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +36.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record24-48-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size73 games
ROI-36.4%
Units Won-26.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-9-00.0%-52.3%
20152-2-00.0%-4.5%
20161-9-00.0%-80.9%
20183-6-00.0%-36.4%
20193-6-00.0%-36.4%
20201-5-10.0%-68.2%
20212-4-00.0%-36.4%
20223-2-00.0%+14.6%
20234-1-00.0%+52.7%
20242-4-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Yankees' struggles as small favorites stem from the inherent pressure that comes with their brand and expectations. When New York enters games laying minimal chalk, they're typically facing quality opponents in competitive matchups where their talent advantage isn't overwhelming. This creates a psychological trap where the team often plays tight, expecting to dominate rather than grinding out close victories. The franchise's offensive philosophy compounds this issue in tight games. The Yankees have historically built lineups around power and patience, which can lead to feast-or-famine performances. When facing competent pitching as small favorites, their all-or-nothing approach often results in extended scoreless stretches that allow underdogs to hang around and capitalize on late-game opportunities. New York's bullpen usage patterns also work against them in these spots. Manager tendencies to ride hot hands or save elite relievers for "bigger" moments can backfire when games remain close throughout. Opposing teams recognize they have legitimate chances against the Yankees in small favorite situations and often play with house money mentality. This trend matters most during interleague play and against divisional rivals who know the Yankees' tendencies intimately, particularly in day games following night contests when execution tends to be less sharp.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New York Yankees's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?

The New York Yankees have a 24-48-1 ATS record as small favorites (-1 to -3) from 2014-2024. This represents a poor 33.3% ATS win rate over 73 total games.

Is betting on the New York Yankees as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?

No, betting on the Yankees as small favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -36.4% ROI. This means bettors would have lost approximately 36 cents for every dollar wagered on Yankees small favorite spreads.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically hover around 50% ATS. The Yankees' 33.3% ATS rate as small favorites represents one of the worst situational trends in MLB betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.