New York Yankees Home Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the New York Yankees in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the New York Yankees are just 20-75-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -59.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +59.8%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-9-0 | 0.0% | -65.3% |
| 2015 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2016 | 2-9-0 | 0.0% | -65.3% |
| 2017 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 3-6-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2019 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2020 | 1-10-0 | 0.0% | -82.6% |
| 2021 | 2-12-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2022 | 4-4-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2023 | 1-10-0 | 0.0% | -82.6% |
| 2024 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Yankees' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a perfect storm of psychological and market dynamics that consistently work against them. New York's championship pedigree creates inflated expectations among both the betting public and the team itself, leading to overvalued lines when they return home after disappointing performances. The pinstripes carry historical weight that oddsmakers and bettors often overestimate, particularly when the team is reeling from a loss and needs to bounce back at Yankee Stadium. The franchise's "championship or bust" mentality can actually become counterproductive in these spots. Players pressing to immediately erase the memory of a poor performance often leads to tight, mechanical play rather than the aggressive, confident baseball that made them home favorites in the first place. The media scrutiny in New York amplifies after losses, creating additional pressure that manifests in underwhelming offensive production and tentative pitching decisions. Market perception plays a crucial role here, as casual bettors gravitate toward backing the Yankees at home, assuming their talent and venue advantage will naturally prevail. This public money consistently inflates the spread beyond the team's actual probability of covering. This trend carries the most weight during playoff races and high-profile series when the stakes and scrutiny reach their peak, making the psychological burden even heavier.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the New York Yankees's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?
The New York Yankees have a 20-75-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 21.1% ATS win rate over 95 games in this situation.
Is betting on the New York Yankees as home favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Yankees as home favorites after a loss is not profitable. This trend shows a -59.8% ROI, meaning bettors would lose approximately 60 cents for every dollar wagered over this period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% ATS in similar situations. The Yankees' 21.1% ATS rate in this spot represents one of the poorest trends in baseball betting.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.