The data suggests caution when backing the New York Mets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as zero days rest, the New York Mets are just 94-96-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record94-96-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size191 games
ROI-5.5%
Units Won-10.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201416-12-00.0%+9.1%
20157-9-10.0%-16.5%
201611-6-00.0%+23.5%
20178-6-00.0%+9.1%
201815-12-00.0%+6.1%
20195-9-00.0%-31.8%
20208-7-00.0%+1.8%
20217-13-00.0%-33.2%
20225-4-00.0%+6.1%
20235-5-00.0%-4.5%
20247-13-00.0%-33.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mets' struggles on zero days rest stem from their organizational approach to roster management and pitching philosophy that prioritizes long-term health over short-term performance. Unlike teams that embrace aggressive bullpen usage in back-to-back situations, the Mets have historically been conservative with their relievers, often forcing starters to pitch deeper into games when fresh arms aren't readily available. This conservative approach becomes problematic when facing teams that deploy more aggressive strategies with rested pitchers. New York's batting approach also suffers in these compressed scenarios. The team's hitters have traditionally relied on working deep counts and grinding out at-bats, a strategy that becomes less effective when facing opponents who can deploy their best relievers more liberally. The mental fatigue factor cannot be understated either - the Mets have shown a pattern of pressing in high-leverage situations, leading to poor plate discipline and defensive lapses when games pile up quickly. The key insight for bettors is recognizing when the Mets face opponents coming off rest while playing their second consecutive game. This dynamic creates the most significant disadvantage, particularly during summer months when the physical toll becomes most apparent and the team's depth limitations are most exposed.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New York Mets's ATS record as zero days rest?

The New York Mets have an ATS record of 94-96-1 when playing on zero days rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 49.2% ATS win rate over 191 total games.

Is betting on the New York Mets as zero days rest profitable?

No, betting on the New York Mets on zero days rest is not profitable. With a 0.0% win rate and -5.5% ROI, bettors would have lost money consistently over this 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Mets' 49.2% ATS rate on zero days rest is slightly below the typical 50% break-even point expected in sports betting. The -5.5% ROI indicates underperformance compared to league averages, though specific league comparison data would be needed for exact benchmarking.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.