New York Mets As Favorite Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the New York Mets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the New York Mets are just 70-343-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -67.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +67.6%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 12-37-0 | 0.0% | -53.2% |
| 2015 | 8-27-0 | 0.0% | -56.4% |
| 2016 | 5-27-0 | 0.0% | -70.2% |
| 2017 | 9-27-1 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2018 | 8-28-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2019 | 5-35-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2020 | 7-23-0 | 0.0% | -55.5% |
| 2021 | 5-39-0 | 0.0% | -78.3% |
| 2022 | 4-27-0 | 0.0% | -75.4% |
| 2023 | 3-34-0 | 0.0% | -84.5% |
| 2024 | 4-39-0 | 0.0% | -82.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Mets' catastrophic performance as favorites stems from a fundamental organizational trait: their tendency to crumble under the weight of expectations. This franchise has historically struggled with the psychological burden that comes with being favored, often displaying the tight, overthinking approach that plagued their 1986 championship team in subsequent decades. When Vegas sets them as favorites, it typically reflects their talent on paper rather than their mental fortitude in pressure situations. New York's roster construction frequently emphasizes individual talent over cohesive team chemistry, creating a squad that looks formidable in projections but fails to execute when expected to win. The Mets often play their best baseball as underdogs, where the pressure is off and players can perform more freely. Their recent organizational instability, from front office turnover to managerial changes, has only amplified this issue, as players lack the consistent leadership structure needed to handle favorite status confidently. Smart bettors should view heavy Mets favoritism as a red flag, particularly in divisional games where familiarity breeds contempt. This trend becomes most critical during playoff races and nationally televised games, when external pressure peaks and the Mets' psychological vulnerabilities are most exposed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the New York Mets's ATS record as as favorite?
The New York Mets have a 70-343-1 ATS record when favored from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 70 out of 414 games. This represents an extremely poor 16.9% ATS win rate as favorites.
Is betting on the New York Mets as as favorite profitable?
No, betting on the New York Mets as favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -67.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 68 cents for every dollar wagered on the Mets when they were favored.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 48-52% of spreads as favorites. The Mets' 16.9% ATS rate as favorites represents one of the worst such records in modern MLB history.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.