Minnesota Twins Away Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Minnesota Twins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Minnesota Twins are just 18-84-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -66.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +66.3%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-9-0 | 0.0% | -65.3% |
| 2015 | 0-9-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 5-9-0 | 0.0% | -31.8% |
| 2018 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2020 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2021 | 2-9-0 | 0.0% | -65.3% |
| 2022 | 2-16-0 | 0.0% | -78.8% |
| 2023 | 1-7-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2024 | 2-6-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Twins' struggles as away favorites following losses reveal a franchise historically plagued by mental fragility and inconsistent road performance. Minnesota's organizational culture has long emphasized steady, methodical baseball that works well at Target Field but often crumbles under the pressure of being expected to bounce back in hostile environments. When the Twins lose and then face the added burden of being road chalk, they frequently play tight and tentative, particularly in their approach at the plate where aggressive swings give way to passive at-bats against opposing pitching. The team's bullpen construction over this period has also been problematic, with Minnesota often carrying relievers better suited for low-leverage situations at home rather than high-pressure road spots where games are typically decided. Their starting rotation, while occasionally solid, has shown a pattern of shortened outings on the road after disappointing performances, putting additional strain on an already questionable relief corps. The most profitable fade opportunities emerge when Minnesota is favored by more than a run on the road after dropping a close game at home, as the psychological carryover effect is amplified by unrealistic market expectations. This trend carries the most weight during divisional road series where familiarity breeds overconfidence in the betting markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Minnesota Twins's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?
The Minnesota Twins have an 18-84-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 17.6% ATS win rate over 102 games.
Is betting on the Minnesota Twins as away favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Minnesota Twins as away favorites after a loss is not profitable. The strategy has produced a -66.3% ROI with only 18 covers in 102 opportunities.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in similar situations. The Twins' 17.6% cover rate represents one of the worst situational betting trends in MLB.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.