The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Brewers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Milwaukee Brewers are just 81-350-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -64.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +64.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record81-350-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size432 games
ROI-64.1%
Units Won-276.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-36-00.0%-55.3%
201512-40-00.0%-55.9%
201610-30-00.0%-52.3%
20177-28-00.0%-61.8%
20189-38-00.0%-63.4%
20197-27-00.0%-60.7%
20203-24-00.0%-78.8%
20216-41-00.0%-75.6%
20227-26-00.0%-59.5%
20235-25-00.0%-68.2%
20244-35-10.0%-80.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Brewers' historically poor performance as favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and their actual competitive profile. Milwaukee has consistently been a team built around pitching depth and opportunistic offense rather than dominant star power, making them vulnerable when the betting public expects them to control games. Their rotation, while often effective, lacks the ace-level dominance that typically drives large favorites to comfortable victories. The franchise's organizational philosophy emphasizes player development and strategic roster construction over marquee acquisitions, creating a team that performs better when flying under the radar. When Milwaukee enters games as favorites, particularly against division rivals who know their tendencies well, they face heightened expectations that don't align with their grinding, small-ball approach. The pressure to perform as the expected winner often exposes their offensive limitations, especially in clutch situations where favorites are expected to pull away. The psychological burden of favorite status appears to weigh heavily on this roster construction. Bettors should strongly consider fading Milwaukee when they're laying significant chalk, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds contempt. This trend carries the most weight during summer months when playoff positioning intensifies the pressure on favorites to deliver statement victories.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Brewers's ATS record as as favorite?

The Milwaukee Brewers have an 81-350-1 ATS record as favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 81 of 432 games. This represents an extremely poor 18.8% ATS win rate when favored.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Brewers as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Brewers as favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -64.1% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 64 cents for every dollar wagered on Milwaukee when they were favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as MLB favorites typically cover around 50% of the time. The Brewers' 18.8% ATS rate as favorites represents one of the worst favorite ATS records in recent MLB history.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.