The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Brewers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Milwaukee Brewers are just 24-81-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -56.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +56.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record24-81-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size106 games
ROI-56.4%
Units Won-59.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-8-00.0%-36.4%
20155-6-00.0%-13.2%
20165-9-00.0%-31.8%
20171-6-00.0%-72.7%
20182-13-00.0%-74.5%
20191-6-00.0%-72.7%
20201-3-00.0%-52.3%
20212-12-00.0%-72.7%
20221-4-00.0%-61.8%
20231-5-00.0%-68.2%
20241-9-10.0%-80.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Brewers' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a combination of psychological fragility and organizational inconsistency that has plagued the franchise for a decade. Milwaukee's small-market mentality creates a team that often lacks the mental fortitude to bounce back immediately after setbacks, particularly when thrust into the unfamiliar role of road favorite. This psychological burden becomes amplified in hostile environments where the pressure to justify their favored status weighs heavily on players who aren't accustomed to carrying expectations away from home. The franchise's pitching-heavy construction philosophy also works against them in these spots. When their rotation falters in the previous game, Milwaukee often lacks the offensive firepower to overcome early deficits on the road, leading to pressing and compounding mistakes. Their bullpen-by-committee approach, while effective in familiar Miller Park conditions, becomes unreliable when facing hostile crowds and unfamiliar mound conditions after already being rattled by a recent loss. The most actionable insight here is recognizing that Milwaukee's road favorite status often represents market overreaction to their recent home success or opponent struggles rather than true road superiority. This trend matters most during divisional series and late-season games when the psychological pressure intensifies and the Brewers' mental makeup becomes most exposed.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Brewers's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 24-81-1 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 0.0% win rate against the spread in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Brewers as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Brewers as away favorites after a loss is not profitable. The strategy shows a -56.4% ROI, meaning bettors would lose more than half their investment over time.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Brewers' 0.0% win rate in this situation represents an extreme negative trend that bettors should avoid.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.