Miami Marlins Two Days Rest Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as two days rest, the Miami Marlins are just 54-59-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.8%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2015 | 6-9-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2016 | 3-7-0 | 0.0% | -42.7% |
| 2017 | 6-4-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2018 | 5-6-0 | 0.0% | -13.2% |
| 2019 | 8-7-0 | 0.0% | +1.8% |
| 2020 | 4-8-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2021 | 5-5-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 5-6-0 | 0.0% | -13.2% |
| 2023 | 5-1-0 | 0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2024 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Marlins' mediocre performance on two days rest reflects the organization's historically inconsistent approach to roster management and player development. Miami has operated with one of baseball's smallest payrolls for over a decade, often fielding lineups heavy on young, inexperienced players who struggle with the mental and physical demands of compressed rest schedules. Unlike veteran-heavy clubs that can rely on seasoned professionals to maintain focus and execution regardless of fatigue, the Marlins' younger roster tends to show more pronounced drops in plate discipline and defensive fundamentals when playing on short rest. The franchise's frequent roster turnover compounds this issue, as players rarely develop the institutional knowledge and chemistry needed to excel in challenging scheduling spots. Miami's pitching staff, often cobbled together from waiver claims and minor league depth, lacks the reliability that makes two-day rest situations manageable for more established organizations. For bettors, the key insight lies in examining Miami's current roster composition before backing them in these spots. When the Marlins field lineups with multiple veterans or are facing similarly inexperienced opponents, the negative trend becomes less reliable. This pattern matters most during summer months when schedule compression peaks and Miami's young players face their greatest physical and mental tests.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as two days rest?
The Miami Marlins have a 54-59-0 ATS record when playing on two days rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.8% ATS win rate over 113 games.
Is betting on the Miami Marlins as two days rest profitable?
No, betting on the Miami Marlins with two days rest is not profitable, showing a -8.8% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Miami in this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Marlins' 47.8% ATS win rate on two days rest is below the expected 50% break-even point. While specific league averages vary, this performance suggests Miami struggles to cover spreads in this rest scenario compared to typical expectations.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.