Miami Marlins Home Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Miami Marlins are just 20-74-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -59.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +59.4%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-6-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2015 | 3-6-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2016 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 4-6-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2018 | 2-8-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2019 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 3-10-0 | 0.0% | -55.9% |
| 2021 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2022 | 2-7-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2023 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 3-6-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Marlins' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the mental fortitude to respond to adversity with authority. Unlike established organizations that use home field advantage to reset after setbacks, Miami has consistently demonstrated an inability to leverage their ballpark and crowd support when expectations are highest. This psychological fragility becomes magnified when oddsmakers install them as favorites, creating pressure situations where the team's confidence issues are most exposed. The franchise's perpetual rebuilding cycles have created a roster construction problem where veteran leadership is often absent during crucial bounce-back spots. Young players who might excel in underdog roles frequently crumble when tasked with meeting elevated expectations at home. The Marlins' pitching staff, historically inconsistent, struggles particularly in these spots where they need to establish early dominance to shift momentum after disappointing performances. Miami's offensive approach compounds these issues, as their hitters tend to press in situations where they're expected to produce runs. The team's historically poor clutch hitting becomes more pronounced when they're favored to win, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of underperformance. This trend matters most during homestand openers following road losses, particularly against divisional opponents where the psychological stakes are elevated and the team's fragile confidence is most vulnerable to early setbacks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?
The Miami Marlins have a 20-74-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 21.3% of these situations. This represents one of the worst ATS trends in baseball over this period.
Is betting on the Miami Marlins as home favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Miami Marlins as home favorites after a loss has been extremely unprofitable with a -59.4% ROI. This trend has lost money consistently, making it one to avoid for bettors.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Marlins' 21.3% cover rate in this situation is exceptionally poor compared to typical MLB betting trends.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.