Miami Marlins Home Games Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home games, the Miami Marlins are just 218-225-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -6.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +6.0%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 20-16-0 | 0.0% | +6.1% |
| 2015 | 18-17-0 | 0.0% | -1.8% |
| 2016 | 16-27-0 | 0.0% | -29.0% |
| 2017 | 25-19-0 | 0.0% | +8.5% |
| 2018 | 20-26-0 | 0.0% | -17.0% |
| 2019 | 14-22-0 | 0.0% | -25.8% |
| 2020 | 28-30-0 | 0.0% | -7.8% |
| 2021 | 19-17-0 | 0.0% | +0.8% |
| 2022 | 17-18-0 | 0.0% | -7.3% |
| 2023 | 14-18-0 | 0.0% | -16.5% |
| 2024 | 27-15-0 | 0.0% | +22.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Miami Marlins' mediocre home performance against the spread reflects the unique challenges of playing at loanDepot Park, where the team has struggled to establish a consistent home-field advantage. The ballpark's dimensions and climate-controlled environment create neutral conditions that don't particularly favor Miami's roster construction, while the franchise's frequent roster turnover has prevented the development of strong clubhouse chemistry that typically translates to better home performance. Miami's inconsistent organizational direction has created a disconnect between fan expectations and team performance at home. The sparse attendance figures at loanDepot Park create an atmosphere that lacks the energy needed to lift players during crucial moments, particularly in close games where crowd noise and support can influence momentum swings. This psychological factor becomes amplified when the Marlins are favored at home, as bettors often overvalue the perceived advantage of playing in familiar surroundings. The franchise's tendency to rebuild frequently means young players are often adjusting to major league pitching while simultaneously dealing with the pressure of performing in front of their home crowd. This creates additional stress that can manifest in underperformance relative to betting expectations. This trend matters most when Miami is laying runs as home favorites against divisional opponents, where the combination of inflated expectations and familiar opposition creates optimal fading opportunities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as home games?
The Miami Marlins have an ATS record of 218-225-0 in home games from 2014-2024. This represents a below-average performance against the spread over this 11-year period.
Is betting on the Miami Marlins as home games profitable?
No, betting on the Miami Marlins in home games has not been profitable, showing a -6.0% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent underperformance against betting expectations at home.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Marlins' 49.2% ATS win rate in home games is below the expected 50% break-even point. This underperformance is worse than typical MLB home teams, which generally perform closer to league average ATS.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.