The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Miami Marlins are just 84-345-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -62.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +62.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record84-345-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size430 games
ROI-62.6%
Units Won-268.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-23-00.0%-50.7%
20155-26-00.0%-69.2%
20168-44-00.0%-70.6%
20178-31-00.0%-60.8%
20186-35-00.0%-72.1%
20194-34-00.0%-79.9%
202012-38-00.0%-54.2%
20216-27-10.0%-65.3%
202212-36-00.0%-52.3%
20233-23-00.0%-78.0%
202412-28-00.0%-42.7%

Why This Trend Exists

The Marlins' catastrophic performance as favorites stems from a fundamental organizational philosophy that prioritizes cost-cutting over competitive roster construction. When Miami enters games favored, they're typically facing weaker opponents at home or benefiting from favorable pitching matchups, yet their thin roster depth consistently fails to capitalize on these advantages. The franchise's notorious reluctance to invest in veteran leadership and reliable bullpen arms becomes magnified in games where expectations are elevated. Miami's psychological fragility as favorites reflects years of organizational instability and roster turnover. Players struggle with the pressure of being expected to win, particularly in a market where fan expectations remain perpetually low. The team's young core often lacks the mental fortitude to close out games when leading, while their historically unreliable relief corps transforms manageable leads into blown opportunities. The Marlins' tactical limitations become most apparent when game scripts favor them early. Their offense relies heavily on power hitting rather than situational baseball, making them vulnerable to quality opposing pitching even when supposedly holding an edge. Additionally, their defensive inconsistencies create unearned opportunities for underdogs to stay competitive. This trend carries maximum significance when Miami is favored in divisional games or against teams with losing records, where the psychological weight of expectation peaks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as as favorite?

The Miami Marlins have an 84-345-1 ATS record when favored from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 84 of 430 games. This represents a dismal 19.5% ATS win rate over the 11-year period.

Is betting on the Miami Marlins as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Miami Marlins as favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -62.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 63 cents for every dollar wagered on Miami when they were favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Marlins' 19.5% ATS rate as favorites represents one of the worst betting trends in MLB during this period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.