Miami Marlins Away Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Miami Marlins are just 27-71-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -47.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +47.4%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 2-6-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2016 | 3-14-0 | 0.0% | -66.3% |
| 2017 | 1-10-0 | 0.0% | -82.6% |
| 2018 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2019 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2020 | 4-5-0 | 0.0% | -15.2% |
| 2021 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2022 | 4-6-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2023 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2024 | 4-5-0 | 0.0% | -15.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Marlins' struggles as road favorites following defeats stem from a toxic combination of organizational instability and psychological fragility that has plagued the franchise for over a decade. Miami has consistently operated with one of baseball's lowest payrolls, creating a roster construction philosophy built around young, inexperienced players who lack the mental fortitude to bounce back from adversity on the road. When the Marlins lose a game and then find themselves favored away from home, they're facing a psychological paradox their young core simply cannot handle. The franchise's perpetual rebuilding cycle means they rarely have veteran leadership capable of steadying the ship during difficult stretches. Road environments amplify this weakness, as Miami's players often press when expectations are placed upon them as favorites, leading to poor plate discipline and defensive miscues. The organization's frequent front office turnover and ownership changes have created an institutional culture that lacks accountability and mental toughness. Smart bettors should consistently fade Miami in this spot, particularly when they're slight road favorites against teams with veteran-heavy lineups. This trend becomes most critical during the summer months when young players typically hit the rookie wall and the psychological pressure intensifies.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?
The Miami Marlins have an ATS record of 27-71-0 (27.6%) as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents 98 total games in this specific situation.
Is betting on the Miami Marlins as away favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Miami Marlins as away favorites after a loss is not profitable. The team has produced a -47.4% ROI with a 0.0% win rate in this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average. Most teams typically cover around 50% of their spreads, making Miami's 27.6% ATS rate in this situation exceptionally poor.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.