The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Marlins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Miami Marlins are just 44-157-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -58.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +58.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record44-157-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size202 games
ROI-58.2%
Units Won-117.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-10-00.0%-45.5%
20152-11-00.0%-70.6%
20166-22-00.0%-59.1%
20172-16-00.0%-78.8%
20182-13-00.0%-74.5%
20193-13-00.0%-64.2%
20206-13-00.0%-39.7%
20214-12-10.0%-52.3%
20228-23-00.0%-50.7%
20232-7-00.0%-57.6%
20245-17-00.0%-56.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Marlins' historically poor performance as road favorites stems from their organizational instability and lack of consistent talent depth. When Miami travels as a favorite, they're typically facing weaker opponents during brief competitive windows, but their roster construction rarely supports sustained excellence away from home. The franchise's frequent rebuilds and payroll constraints mean they often lack the veteran leadership and bullpen depth necessary to close out games in hostile environments. Miami's struggles intensify when the betting market overvalues their temporary hot streaks or individual player performances. The Marlins have consistently been a young, inexperienced team that wilts under the pressure of being expected to win on the road. Their pitching staff, often built around promising but unproven arms, tends to struggle with command in unfamiliar ballparks, while their offense lacks the consistent power threats needed to overcome early deficits. The psychological burden of being favored appears particularly damaging for a franchise accustomed to underdog status. When expectations rise, Miami's players often press, leading to poor plate discipline and defensive miscues that compound in crucial late-game situations. This trend matters most during interleague play and against rebuilding NL teams, where Miami might be artificially favored despite their road limitations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Marlins's ATS record as away favorite?

The Miami Marlins have a 44-157-1 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 44 out of 202 games. This represents an extremely poor 21.8% ATS win rate in this situation.

Is betting on the Miami Marlins as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Miami Marlins as away favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -58.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 58 cents for every dollar wagered on Miami in this spot.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 48-52% of spreads over time. The Marlins' 21.8% cover rate as away favorites represents one of the worst situational trends in MLB betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.