The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Dodgers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Los Angeles Dodgers are just 9-82-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -81.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +81.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record9-82-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size91 games
ROI-81.1%
Units Won-73.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-9-00.0%-100.0%
20151-2-00.0%-36.4%
20160-5-00.0%-100.0%
20170-4-00.0%-100.0%
20181-8-00.0%-78.8%
20192-8-00.0%-61.8%
20201-8-00.0%-78.8%
20211-10-00.0%-82.6%
20222-9-00.0%-65.3%
20230-9-00.0%-100.0%
20241-10-00.0%-82.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Dodgers' historically poor performance as home favorites following losses stems from a dangerous combination of organizational expectations and psychological pressure that creates inflated betting lines. As one of baseball's most expensive rosters with championship aspirations, the public consistently overvalues their bounce-back ability after defeats, particularly at Dodger Stadium where they're expected to dominate. This trend reflects the classic "public darling" syndrome where casual bettors pile onto a marquee franchise believing star power automatically translates to immediate redemption. The Dodgers' high-profile acquisitions and media coverage create a perception that they should easily handle inferior competition at home, leading oddsmakers to inflate spreads beyond the team's actual performance capabilities in these specific situations. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Championship-caliber teams often struggle with the mental reset required after losses, sometimes pressing too hard or overthinking their approach rather than executing their standard game plan. The weight of expectations at home, combined with the pressure to immediately validate their status as favorites, creates tension that manifests in underperformance. This trend carries the most significance when the Dodgers are heavily favored at home following road losses, especially against teams they're expected to handle easily during crucial divisional matchups.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Los Angeles Dodgers's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 9-82-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 0.0% win rate against the spread in this situation.

Is betting on the Los Angeles Dodgers as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Dodgers as home favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with an -81.1% ROI. This system has lost money consistently over the 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Dodgers' 9.9% ATS rate in this spot is exceptionally poor.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.