Los Angeles Dodgers Home Favorite Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Dodgers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Los Angeles Dodgers are just 36-174-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -67.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +67.3%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4-21-0 | 0.0% | -69.5% |
| 2015 | 2-14-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2016 | 4-12-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2017 | 2-12-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2018 | 4-19-0 | 0.0% | -66.8% |
| 2019 | 5-16-0 | 0.0% | -54.5% |
| 2020 | 2-15-0 | 0.0% | -77.5% |
| 2021 | 2-16-0 | 0.0% | -78.8% |
| 2022 | 5-14-0 | 0.0% | -49.8% |
| 2023 | 1-19-0 | 0.0% | -90.5% |
| 2024 | 5-16-0 | 0.0% | -54.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Dodgers' struggles as home favorites stem from their consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers who price in their star power and payroll advantages too heavily. Los Angeles enters most home games with inflated expectations, particularly when facing division rivals or during high-profile series where public betting heavily favors the glamour franchise. This creates a systematic pricing inefficiency where the line doesn't reflect the actual competitive balance on the field. The team's psychological makeup compounds this issue. The Dodgers often play with less urgency at Dodger Stadium when favored, expecting their talent advantage to carry them through without maximum effort. Their veteran-heavy roster can fall into cruise control against perceived inferior opponents, while visiting underdogs arrive with nothing-to-lose mentality and elevated focus. The pressure of meeting inflated expectations at home, combined with opponents who rise to the occasion against baseball's most recognizable franchise, creates a perfect storm for underperformance. Sharp bettors should target fading the Dodgers as substantial home favorites, particularly against scrappy opponents with strong starting pitching. This trend carries the most weight during weekday games and non-marquee matchups when public perception inflates the line beyond the true talent differential.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Los Angeles Dodgers's ATS record as home favorite?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 36-174-0 ATS record as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 36 of 210 games. This represents an extremely poor 17.1% cover rate over the 11-year period.
Is betting on the Los Angeles Dodgers as home favorite profitable?
No, betting on the Dodgers as home favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -67.3% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost approximately 67 cents for every dollar wagered on LA to cover as home chalk.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Dodgers' 17.1% cover rate as home favorites represents one of the worst ATS trends in baseball during this period.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.