Kansas City Royals Home Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Kansas City Royals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Kansas City Royals are just 13-94-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -76.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +76.8%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 1-12-0 | 0.0% | -85.3% |
| 2017 | 2-11-0 | 0.0% | -70.6% |
| 2018 | 2-10-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2019 | 1-9-0 | 0.0% | -80.9% |
| 2020 | 0-9-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | 1-12-0 | 0.0% | -85.3% |
| 2022 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2024 | 3-7-0 | 0.0% | -42.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Royals' struggles as home favorites following losses reveal a franchise caught between expectations and execution. Kansas City has historically been built around small-ball tactics, defensive positioning, and pitching depth rather than explosive offensive capability. When they enter games as favorites at Kauffman Stadium after a defeat, the market often overvalues their home-field advantage while underestimating how their conservative offensive approach compounds pressure situations. The psychological element proves particularly damaging for this organization. The Royals' recent competitive windows have been narrow, creating an organizational culture where losses carry amplified weight. Following defeats, their methodical offensive style becomes even more tentative, especially when the betting public expects them to bounce back at home. Their pitching staff, while often solid, lacks the dominant ace presence needed to consistently cover inflated lines that come with favorite status. The franchise's inconsistent offensive production becomes magnified when expectations rise. Kansas City's lineup frequently struggles to generate the multi-run innings necessary to cover spreads, particularly when opposing pitchers can attack the strike zone knowing the Royals rarely capitalize on mistakes. This trend holds maximum significance during homestands following road losses, when public perception inflates their true probability of covering against quality opponents.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Kansas City Royals's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?
The Kansas City Royals have an ATS record of 13-94-0 (12.1% win rate) when playing as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball during this period.
Is betting on the Kansas City Royals as home favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Kansas City Royals as home favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -76.8% ROI. This means bettors would have lost approximately 77 cents for every dollar wagered on this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of their spreads. The Royals' 12.1% ATS rate in this situation is among the worst documented trends in professional sports betting.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.