The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Astros in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as on a 3+ game win streak, the Houston Astros are just 448-454-2 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.2%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record448-454-2
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size904 games
ROI-5.2%
Units Won-46.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201444-45-10.0%-5.6%
201545-49-10.0%-8.6%
201644-42-00.0%-2.3%
201741-36-00.0%+1.6%
201837-47-00.0%-15.9%
201947-34-00.0%+10.8%
202043-47-00.0%-8.8%
202132-40-00.0%-15.2%
202241-37-00.0%+0.3%
202335-30-00.0%+2.8%
202439-47-00.0%-13.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Astros' struggles against the spread during extended winning streaks reflect a classic case of market overadjustment to hot streaks. When Houston strings together victories, sportsbooks and the betting public tend to inflate their lines beyond what the underlying performance merits. This creates a systematic disadvantage for Astros backers, as the team becomes consistently overvalued in the marketplace. Houston's analytical approach to roster construction and game management actually works against them in these situations. The Astros build sustainable success through depth and matchup optimization rather than dominant star power, meaning their winning streaks often lack the explosive offensive performances that justify inflated spreads. Their methodical style produces consistent results but rarely the blowout victories needed to cover elevated numbers. The psychological element compounds this issue. During win streaks, the Astros face heightened opponent motivation while dealing with increased media attention and expectations. Teams playing Houston during these runs often elevate their performance, knowing they're facing a hot club with playoff implications on most games. Bettors should target fading the Astros when they're riding three-plus game winning streaks, particularly in road games where the line inflation tends to be most pronounced and opponent motivation peaks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Astros's ATS record as on a 3+ game win streak?

The Houston Astros have an ATS record of 448-454-2 when on a 3+ game win streak from 2014-2024. This represents a slightly below-average performance against the spread during winning streaks.

Is betting on the Houston Astros as on a 3+ game win streak profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Astros when on a 3+ game win streak is not profitable. The strategy shows a -5.2% ROI over the 2014-2024 period, meaning bettors would lose money long-term.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is slightly below league average, as the Astros cover the spread less than 50% of the time during win streaks. Most teams perform similarly during winning streaks, with oddsmakers typically adjusting lines to account for public perception.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.