The public often underestimates the Houston Astros in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Houston Astros hold a record of 41-27-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +15.1% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $10 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record41-27-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size68 games
ROI+15.1%
Units Won+10.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-1-00.0%+52.7%
20154-5-00.0%-15.2%
20164-3-00.0%+9.1%
20174-1-00.0%+52.7%
20183-3-00.0%-4.5%
20191-4-00.0%-61.8%
20207-1-00.0%+67.0%
20214-4-00.0%-4.5%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20237-1-00.0%+67.0%
20241-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Astros' exceptional performance as small underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and analytical precision. When Houston enters games with modest plus-money odds, they're typically facing quality opponents in competitive matchups where their advanced metrics and strategic depth become decisive factors. The team's front office has consistently built rosters with veteran leadership and clutch performers who thrive under pressure, making them particularly dangerous when the betting market slightly undervalues their chances. Houston's analytical approach to lineup construction and bullpen management gives them tactical advantages that oddsmakers sometimes overlook in close contests. Their ability to optimize matchups throughout a game, combined with a core group of players who've performed in high-stakes situations, creates value when they're perceived as slight underdogs. The franchise's recent championship pedigree also instills confidence that translates into superior execution during tight games. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Houston's small underdog spots often represent market inefficiencies, particularly when they're playing quality opponents at home or in divisional matchups where their familiarity and preparation provide additional edges. This trend matters most during the middle months of the season when the Astros are finding their rhythm and facing other contending teams in closely-matched series.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Astros's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?

The Houston Astros have a 41-27-0 ATS record when playing as small underdogs (+1 to +3 points) from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 60.3% ATS win rate over 68 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Houston Astros as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Houston Astros as small underdogs has been profitable with a 15.1% ROI from 2014-2024. Their 60.3% ATS win rate in this spot significantly exceeds the breakeven threshold needed for profitability.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Astros' 60.3% ATS win rate as small underdogs substantially outperforms the typical league average of around 50%. Their 15.1% ROI indicates they consistently provide strong value when lightly dismissed by oddsmakers.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.