The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Astros in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as three or more days rest, the Houston Astros are just 121-150-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -14.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +14.8%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record121-150-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size271 games
ROI-14.8%
Units Won-40.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-18-00.0%-41.3%
201510-11-00.0%-9.1%
201610-12-00.0%-13.2%
201715-12-00.0%+6.1%
20188-18-00.0%-41.3%
201912-12-00.0%-4.5%
202011-13-00.0%-12.5%
202114-10-00.0%+11.4%
202210-16-00.0%-26.6%
202312-11-00.0%-0.4%
202411-17-00.0%-25.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Astros' struggles with extended rest stem from their organizational philosophy of maintaining aggressive offensive rhythm and pitcher development through consistent work. Houston's hitters have historically thrived on seeing live pitching regularly, with their patient approach and high walk rates requiring constant timing adjustments. When facing three or more days off, their selective batting eye often leads to early-count disadvantages as timing mechanisms reset. From a pitching perspective, the Astros' rotation has been built around precise command and sequencing rather than overpowering velocity. Extended breaks disrupt the delicate balance their starters need to execute their game plans effectively. The team's analytical approach also means they rely heavily on recent data and tendencies, which become less reliable after layoffs when opposing hitters have had time to make adjustments. The franchise's competitive window mentality has also created lineups filled with veteran players who benefit more from routine than younger, more adaptable athletes. These experienced hitters often need consistent at-bats to maintain their sophisticated approaches against quality pitching. Bettors should particularly target fading Houston when they return from extended rest against teams with strong starting pitching, especially in divisional matchups where opponents have had time to study recent Astros trends and make tactical adjustments.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Astros's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Houston Astros have gone 121-150-0 against the spread when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 44.7% ATS win rate over 271 total games.

Is betting on the Houston Astros as three or more days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Astros with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -14.8% ROI over the past decade. This poor performance suggests the betting market may overvalue the Astros in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Astros' 44.7% ATS win rate with extended rest is significantly below the expected 50% break-even point for spread betting. This underperformance indicates they struggle to cover spreads when coming off lengthy breaks compared to typical expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.