The public often underestimates the Houston Astros in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as medium underdog (+3.5 to +7), the Houston Astros hold a record of 126-17-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +68.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $98 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record126-17-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size144 games
ROI+68.2%
Units Won+97.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201415-1-00.0%+79.0%
20158-3-10.0%+38.8%
20169-1-00.0%+71.8%
201712-2-00.0%+63.6%
201811-1-00.0%+75.0%
201917-2-00.0%+70.8%
202014-1-00.0%+78.2%
20215-1-00.0%+59.1%
202210-2-00.0%+59.1%
202310-0-00.0%+90.9%
202415-3-00.0%+59.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Astros' dominance as medium underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and analytical precision that thrives when expectations are tempered. Houston's front office has consistently built rosters with veteran leadership and playoff experience, creating a team that performs best when facing adversity rather than carrying heavy favorite status. Their analytical approach to matchups becomes particularly effective in these spots, as they can exploit perceived weaknesses in opponents who may be overvalued by the market. When Houston enters games as medium underdogs, they're typically facing quality opponents on the road or dealing with starting pitching disadvantages that the betting market may overweight. The Astros' deep bullpen and clutch hitting core historically excel in these competitive environments where games are decided by small margins. Their veteran presence prevents the team from pressing or changing their approach, allowing their superior fundamentals to shine through. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Houston's underdog value often emerges against division rivals or quality National League opponents where familiarity breeds respect in the betting market. This trend carries the most weight during the regular season when the Astros are road underdogs against teams with comparable records, particularly in series where they can leverage their superior depth and experience.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Astros's ATS record as medium underdog (+3.5 to +7)?

The Houston Astros have an exceptional 126-17-1 ATS record as medium underdogs (+3.5 to +7) from 2014-2024. This represents an outstanding 88.1% ATS win rate in this betting situation.

Is betting on the Houston Astros as medium underdog (+3.5 to +7) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Houston Astros as medium underdogs has been extremely profitable with a 68.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents one of the most profitable betting trends in baseball during this period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly exceeds the league average, as most teams struggle to maintain even a 52-55% ATS win rate. The Astros' 88.1% success rate as medium underdogs is exceptionally rare in sports betting.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.