Houston Astros Home Favorite on Zero Rest Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Astros in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Houston Astros are just 14-52-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -59.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +59.5%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2015 | 3-8-0 | 0.0% | -47.9% |
| 2016 | 1-7-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2017 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2018 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2019 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2020 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2023 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2024 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Astros' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their reliance on precise execution and analytical preparation, both of which suffer significantly in back-to-back scenarios. Houston's organizational philosophy emphasizes detailed scouting reports and situational matchups, but compressed schedules force them to rely more on instinct than preparation. Their pitching staff, particularly their bullpen depth, becomes severely compromised when facing consecutive games without recovery time. The psychological factor cannot be overlooked either. As perennial contenders, the Astros often carry inflated public perception that creates artificially high spreads when they're favored at home. Bettors consistently overvalue Houston's home-field advantage at Minute Maid Park when the team is operating on fumes. The ballpark's unique dimensions and atmospheric conditions require precise timing and approach adjustments that become nearly impossible to execute when players are fatigued. Sharp bettors should consistently fade Houston as home favorites following day games or when completing road series the previous day. The combination of public money inflating their lines and genuine competitive disadvantage creates exceptional value on the opposing side. This trend carries maximum weight during summer months when heat compounds fatigue effects and during playoff races when every game carries heightened intensity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Houston Astros's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?
The Houston Astros have a 14-52-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 21.2% ATS win rate over 66 games.
Is betting on the Houston Astros as home favorite on zero rest profitable?
No, betting on the Houston Astros as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable. The team has produced a -59.5% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate in this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly below league average expectations for home favorites. Most home favorites typically cover at rates closer to 48-52%, making Houston's 21.2% ATS rate exceptionally poor in this specific scenario.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.