Houston Astros Away Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Astros in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Houston Astros are just 12-87-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -76.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +76.9%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2015 | 2-9-0 | 0.0% | -65.3% |
| 2016 | 1-7-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2017 | 0-11-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2020 | 0-11-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | 1-13-0 | 0.0% | -86.4% |
| 2022 | 2-7-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2023 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-8-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Astros' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a perfect storm of psychological and strategic vulnerabilities that compound their disadvantages. Houston has historically relied heavily on their home environment and routine, making them particularly susceptible to the mental reset required when traveling after a deflating loss. The team's analytical approach, while successful overall, can work against them in these emotional moments where instinct and adaptability matter more than preparation. Their offensive identity built around patient plate approaches and working counts becomes problematic on the road after losses, as opposing pitchers gain confidence and crowd energy shifts momentum. The Astros' pitching staff, accustomed to the controlled environment of Minute Maid Park, often struggles with command issues in hostile road environments when already dealing with the mental baggage of recent failure. The franchise's recent success has created inflated expectations, making them consistent betting favorites even in unfavorable spots. This creates value opportunities for sharp bettors who recognize that talent alone doesn't overcome the psychological hurdles of road baseball after setbacks. This trend carries the most weight when Houston faces division rivals or teams with strong home records, where the emotional and environmental factors amplify their post-loss road struggles.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Houston Astros's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?
The Houston Astros have a 12-87-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 12.1% of these situations. This represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball betting.
Is betting on the Houston Astros as away favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Houston Astros as away favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -76.9% ROI. Bettors would have lost nearly 77 cents for every dollar wagered over this 11-year period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Astros' 12.1% cover rate in this situation is exceptionally poor and represents a strong fade opportunity.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.