The data suggests caution when backing the Detroit Tigers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Detroit Tigers are just 23-79-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -57.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +57.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record23-79-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size102 games
ROI-57.0%
Units Won-58.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-12-00.0%-85.3%
20153-7-00.0%-42.7%
20161-11-00.0%-84.1%
20171-5-00.0%-68.2%
20182-8-00.0%-61.8%
20191-4-00.0%-61.8%
20202-5-00.0%-45.5%
20217-10-00.0%-21.4%
20221-4-00.0%-61.8%
20231-6-00.0%-72.7%
20243-7-00.0%-42.7%

Why This Trend Exists

The Tigers' historically poor performance as home favorites following losses stems from a franchise that has consistently struggled with mental resilience and roster construction over the past decade. Detroit's rebuilding years created a culture where bouncing back from adversity became increasingly difficult, particularly when the betting market still viewed them as favorites despite their fragile confidence. The psychological weight of disappointing home crowds while carrying favorite status created a perfect storm for underperformance. Detroit's lineup construction during this period often featured feast-or-famine offensive approaches that became magnified after losses. When facing the pressure of being favored at Comerica Park, hitters would press for big innings rather than grinding out quality at-bats, leading to quick innings and increased pressure on their pitching staff. The team's bullpen inconsistencies were especially exposed in these spots, as managers often over-managed situations trying to manufacture wins rather than trusting their personnel. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Detroit's home favorite status often reflected market inefficiency rather than true capability during their down years. The betting public's tendency to back home teams created inflated lines that savvy bettors could exploit. This trend matters most when Detroit is a slight home favorite against divisional opponents, where familiarity breeds additional pressure to perform.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Detroit Tigers's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Detroit Tigers have an ATS record of 23-79-0 (22.5% win rate) when playing as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball over this period.

Is betting on the Detroit Tigers as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Detroit Tigers as home favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -57.0% ROI. This trend has consistently lost money for bettors over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams perform closer to 50% ATS in similar situations. The Tigers' 22.5% win rate in this spot is exceptionally poor compared to typical home favorite expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.