Cleveland Guardians Home Favorite Betting Trend

The Guardians' struggles as home favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and their actual competitive profile. Cleveland has historically been built around pitching, defense, and manufacturing runs rather than overwhelming offensive firepower. When oddsmakers install them as favorites at Progressive Field, they're often overvaluing this systematic approach against teams that can exploit their offensive limitations through superior hitting depth. The psychological component cannot be ignored either. Cleveland's fanbase and organization have long carried the weight of championship expectations, creating additional pressure when the team is expected to win. This manifests in tighter play, particularly from a pitching staff that thrives when playing with house money rather than protecting leads. The Guardians' bullpen-heavy approach works better in underdog scenarios where they can deploy their relievers more aggressively without the burden of maintaining favorable odds. Market inefficiency plays a crucial role here, as casual bettors consistently overvalue home field advantage for teams with strong defensive reputations. The betting public sees Cleveland's solid fundamentals and assumes they should dominate lesser opponents at home, creating inflated lines that sharp money rarely supports. This trend carries the most weight during divisional matchups and interleague play, where familiarity breeds contempt and visiting teams arrive with specific game plans to neutralize Cleveland's systematic advantages.