Cleveland Guardians Away Favorite Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Cleveland Guardians in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Cleveland Guardians are just 33-168-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -68.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +68.7%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5-10-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2015 | 1-12-0 | 0.0% | -85.3% |
| 2016 | 5-19-0 | 0.0% | -60.2% |
| 2017 | 4-21-0 | 0.0% | -69.5% |
| 2018 | 1-12-0 | 0.0% | -85.3% |
| 2019 | 5-22-0 | 0.0% | -64.7% |
| 2020 | 3-17-0 | 0.0% | -71.4% |
| 2021 | 2-14-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2022 | 4-15-0 | 0.0% | -59.8% |
| 2023 | 2-14-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2024 | 1-12-0 | 0.0% | -85.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Guardians' struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between their team identity and the expectations that come with being favored away from home. Cleveland has historically built their success around small-ball tactics, strong pitching, and capitalizing on opponent mistakes - strategies that work exceptionally well as underdogs but create pressure when they're expected to control games on hostile territory. When the Guardians travel as favorites, they're typically facing teams in rebuilding phases or slumps, which means these opponents are often more motivated and desperate for wins. Cleveland's conservative offensive approach, while effective over a full season, doesn't generate the explosive innings needed to quickly silence road crowds or put away inferior teams early. Their pitching staff, though generally solid, tends to work deep counts and throw more pitches, making them vulnerable to late-game collapses when the bullpen is overextended. The psychological burden of being road favorites appears to weigh heavily on a franchise that has thrived on the underdog mentality. Players seem to press more at the plate and make uncharacteristic defensive miscues when expectations are elevated. This trend matters most during interleague play and series against bottom-tier AL Central opponents, where Cleveland is most likely to be installed as road chalk despite their historical struggles in this role.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Cleveland Guardians's ATS record as away favorite?
The Cleveland Guardians have a 33-168-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 16.4% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances in this specific situation over the past decade.
Is betting on the Cleveland Guardians as away favorite profitable?
No, betting on the Cleveland Guardians as away favorites is extremely unprofitable with a -68.7% ROI. This means bettors would lose approximately 69 cents for every dollar wagered on Cleveland in this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Guardians' 16.4% cover rate as away favorites is exceptionally poor and represents a strong fade opportunity.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.