The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as three or more days rest, the Cincinnati Reds are just 127-150-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record127-150-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size277 games
ROI-12.5%
Units Won-34.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201410-15-00.0%-23.6%
201511-16-00.0%-22.2%
201611-16-00.0%-22.2%
201712-14-00.0%-11.9%
20187-12-00.0%-29.7%
201912-15-00.0%-15.2%
202010-15-00.0%-23.6%
202113-11-00.0%+3.4%
202214-11-00.0%+6.9%
202316-11-00.0%+13.1%
202411-14-00.0%-16.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Reds' struggles with extended rest stem from their organizational philosophy that emphasizes rhythm and momentum over recovery. Cincinnati has historically built rosters around contact hitters and ground ball pitchers who rely heavily on timing and feel rather than pure power or velocity. When these players sit idle for multiple days, they lose the muscle memory and plate discipline that makes their approach effective against major league pitching. The team's pitching staff compounds this issue, as Cincinnati often employs finesse pitchers who depend on command and sequencing rather than overpowering stuff. Extended layoffs disrupt these pitchers' ability to locate precisely, leading to elevated walk rates and more hittable counts. The franchise's emphasis on developing younger players also means their roster frequently includes inexperienced athletes who haven't yet learned how to maintain sharpness during downtime. Cincinnati's clubhouse culture has traditionally valued consistent activity and practice, making extended breaks more disruptive than they might be for veteran-heavy teams. Players lose their competitive edge and timing, which shows up immediately in their performance metrics. This trend carries the most weight during playoff races in September when weather delays and schedule quirks create longer rest periods between crucial series.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Cincinnati Reds have gone 127-150-0 against the spread when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 45.8% ATS win rate over 277 total games.

Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as three or more days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Cincinnati Reds with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -12.5% ROI. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Reds in this situation over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Reds' 45.8% ATS win rate with extended rest is below the typical 50% break-even point for spread betting. This suggests they consistently underperform expectations when coming off longer layoffs compared to league norms.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.