The public often underestimates the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Cincinnati Reds hold a record of 80-14-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +62.5% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $59 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record80-14-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size94 games
ROI+62.5%
Units Won+58.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-2-00.0%+27.3%
20154-0-00.0%+90.9%
20169-1-00.0%+71.8%
20173-0-00.0%+90.9%
20186-3-00.0%+27.3%
20195-2-00.0%+36.4%
20208-1-00.0%+69.7%
20219-3-00.0%+43.2%
202211-0-00.0%+90.9%
202313-1-00.0%+77.3%
20248-1-00.0%+69.7%

Why This Trend Exists

The data appears to contain errors that make meaningful analysis impossible. A record of 80-14 with 0% win rate and zero games since 2014 presents contradictory information that doesn't align with standard baseball analytics. However, the concept of home underdogs after wins in MLB does reveal interesting market dynamics. Teams coming off victories often see inflated public perception, yet oddsmakers typically account for recent performance when setting lines. When a team remains an underdog at home despite winning, it usually signals deeper concerns about pitching matchups, recent roster moves, or systemic weaknesses that sharp money recognizes. Cincinnati's ballpark characteristics could play a role in legitimate scenarios. Great American Ball Park's dimensions and wind patterns create specific advantages for certain types of hitters and pitchers. When the Reds are home underdogs after wins, it might reflect unfavorable pitching matchups where their starter faces a superior opponent in conditions that don't favor their typical offensive approach. For bettors, the key insight would be examining the specific reasons behind the underdog status rather than blindly following any trend. This pattern would matter most early in series when starting pitcher matchups create clear advantages for visiting teams despite Cincinnati's recent momentum.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Cincinnati Reds have an 80-14-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents an exceptional 85.1% ATS win rate over 94 games.

Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Cincinnati Reds as home underdogs after a win has been highly profitable with a 62.5% ROI. This trend has generated consistent returns over an 11-year period with strong sample size.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 85.1% ATS win rate significantly outperforms typical league averages, which generally hover around 50% for ATS betting. The Reds' performance in this specific situation represents one of the strongest situational trends in baseball betting.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.