Cincinnati Reds Home After 2+ Losses Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home after 2+ losses, the Cincinnati Reds are just 220-248-2 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -10.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +10.3%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 18-24-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2015 | 17-14-0 | 0.0% | +4.7% |
| 2016 | 23-20-0 | 0.0% | +2.1% |
| 2017 | 17-22-0 | 0.0% | -16.8% |
| 2018 | 22-29-0 | 0.0% | -17.6% |
| 2019 | 21-21-1 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 14-25-0 | 0.0% | -31.5% |
| 2021 | 22-21-1 | 0.0% | -2.3% |
| 2022 | 21-23-0 | 0.0% | -8.9% |
| 2023 | 29-23-0 | 0.0% | +6.5% |
| 2024 | 16-26-0 | 0.0% | -27.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Reds' struggles as home favorites after multiple losses reveal a franchise caught between expectation and execution. Cincinnati's home ballpark advantage at Great American Ball Park becomes a psychological burden when the team enters already reeling from consecutive defeats. The pressure to perform in front of their fanbase often leads to pressing, particularly among younger players who have comprised much of the Reds' roster during their rebuilding phases. Cincinnati's offensive approach becomes notably more aggressive in these spots, leading to poor plate discipline and an inability to work deep counts against opposing pitchers. This impatience stems from wanting to quickly erase recent struggles, but it typically results in early deficits that compound the team's confidence issues. The Reds' bullpen depth has also been consistently questionable during this period, meaning they often can't recover from early holes even when they do generate offense. The franchise's inconsistent roster construction amplifies these issues, as veterans and prospects alike feel additional pressure to justify their roles when the team desperately needs a bounce-back performance. Smart bettors should target Cincinnati's opponents in these situations, particularly when the Reds are laying runs against quality starting pitching. This trend carries the most weight during summer homestand stretches when fan expectations peak.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as home after 2+ losses?
The Cincinnati Reds have an ATS record of 220-248-2 when playing at home after suffering 2 or more consecutive losses from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.0% ATS win rate over 470 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as home after 2+ losses profitable?
No, betting on the Cincinnati Reds at home after 2+ losses has not been profitable, showing a -10.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Reds in this scenario.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Reds' 47.0% ATS win rate in this situation is below the typical 50% breakeven point needed for profitability. Without specific league average data for this scenario, their sub-.500 record and negative ROI suggest below-average performance compared to most teams.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.