Cincinnati Reds Favorite After 3+ Game Losing Streak Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Cincinnati Reds are just 77-385-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -68.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +68.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 9-35-0 | 0.0% | -61.0% |
| 2015 | 4-32-0 | 0.0% | -78.8% |
| 2016 | 10-40-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2017 | 6-45-0 | 0.0% | -77.5% |
| 2018 | 11-32-0 | 0.0% | -51.2% |
| 2019 | 9-29-0 | 0.0% | -54.8% |
| 2020 | 3-33-0 | 0.0% | -84.1% |
| 2021 | 8-28-1 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2022 | 5-35-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2023 | 9-34-0 | 0.0% | -60.0% |
| 2024 | 3-42-0 | 0.0% | -87.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Reds' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks reveal a franchise plagued by inconsistent roster construction and organizational instability. Cincinnati has historically operated with limited payroll flexibility, meaning their "favorite" status often comes against equally weak opponents rather than reflecting genuine strength. When the Reds enter these spots, they're typically facing teams in similar rebuilding phases, creating coin-flip scenarios where the betting market overvalues their slight edge. The psychological component cannot be ignored. Cincinnati's clubhouse culture has lacked veteran leadership during many of these seasons, leaving young players without proper guidance during adversity. Manager turnover has been frequent, creating tactical inconsistencies that become magnified when expectations rise. The organization's development philosophy has emphasized long-term building over short-term competitiveness, meaning players often lack the urgency needed to bounce back from rough patches. Smart bettors should target Cincinnati's opponents in these situations, particularly when the Reds are small road favorites. The combination of public perception favoring the "bounce-back" narrative and Cincinnati's historical inability to deliver creates consistent value on the other side. This trend carries the most weight during the middle months of the season when organizational priorities become clearest and veteran presence matters most.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?
The Cincinnati Reds have an ATS record of 77-385-1 (0.0% win rate) when favored after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball.
Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?
No, betting on the Cincinnati Reds as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks is highly unprofitable with a -68.2% ROI. This trend has consistently lost money for bettors over the 11-year period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams hover around 50% ATS in situational spots. The Reds' 0.0% win rate in this situation is an extreme statistical outlier.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.