The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Cincinnati Reds are just 17-85-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -68.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +68.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record17-85-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size102 games
ROI-68.2%
Units Won-69.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-7-00.0%-30.6%
20151-13-00.0%-86.4%
20161-10-00.0%-82.6%
20172-15-00.0%-77.5%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20191-8-00.0%-78.8%
20201-5-00.0%-68.2%
20211-5-00.0%-68.2%
20222-5-00.0%-45.5%
20232-6-00.0%-52.3%
20241-9-00.0%-80.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Reds' struggles as away favorites following losses stem from a toxic combination of psychological fragility and organizational instability that has plagued the franchise for years. When Cincinnati enters hostile territory as a betting favorite after absorbing a defeat, they're essentially fighting a two-front war against both external pressure and internal doubt. The team's chronic inability to develop consistent mental toughness shows most acutely in these spots, where the weight of expectation meets the sting of recent failure. Cincinnati's roster construction during this period has consistently favored streaky, momentum-dependent players over steady veterans who can weather adversity. Their pitching staff, in particular, has lacked the ace-level presence needed to stop losing streaks on the road. The Reds have also struggled with poor bullpen management in high-leverage situations, often compounding problems when games remain close late. The fade becomes most valuable when Cincinnati is favored by less than 1.5 runs on the road after a loss, particularly against divisional opponents who know their weaknesses intimately. These spots represent maximum vulnerability, where the betting public overvalues the Reds based on perceived talent rather than their demonstrated inability to respond to adversity away from home.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cincinnati Reds's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Cincinnati Reds have a 17-85-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 16.7% ATS win rate over 102 games.

Is betting on the Cincinnati Reds as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Cincinnati Reds as away favorites after a loss is not profitable. This trend shows a -68.2% ROI with only 17 covers in 102 opportunities.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS. The Reds' 16.7% cover rate in this situation represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.