The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago White Sox in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Chicago White Sox are just 45-167-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -59.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +59.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record45-167-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size212 games
ROI-59.5%
Units Won-126.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-18-00.0%-72.7%
20153-16-00.0%-69.9%
20164-16-00.0%-61.8%
20174-11-00.0%-49.1%
20182-16-00.0%-78.8%
20194-15-00.0%-59.8%
20208-11-00.0%-19.6%
20217-17-00.0%-44.3%
20222-12-00.0%-72.7%
20235-19-00.0%-60.2%
20243-16-00.0%-69.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The White Sox's catastrophic performance as home favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and organizational reality during their extended rebuilding period. When bookmakers install Chicago as favorites at Guaranteed Rate Field, they're often overvaluing name recognition and home field advantage while underestimating the depth of the team's talent deficiencies. This creates inflated lines that savvy bettors can exploit consistently. The psychological burden of favoritism compounds Chicago's struggles, as young players and inconsistent veterans crumble under the pressure of expectations they're not equipped to meet. The White Sox have historically struggled with situational hitting and late-game execution, problems that become magnified when they're expected to win. Their pitching staff, particularly the bullpen during lean years, has repeatedly failed to protect leads that oddsmakers assumed they could maintain. The most actionable insight for bettors is recognizing when the White Sox are favored despite facing quality starting pitching or teams with superior recent form. These spots often present the highest value fade opportunities. This trend matters most during interleague play and weekend series when casual betting action inflates Chicago's odds beyond their true capabilities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago White Sox's ATS record as home favorite?

The Chicago White Sox have a 45-167-0 ATS record as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 45 out of 212 games. This represents a 21.2% ATS win rate, meaning they have failed to cover the spread in nearly 4 out of every 5 games as home favorites.

Is betting on the Chicago White Sox as home favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Chicago White Sox as home favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -59.5% ROI from 2014-2024. This poor performance would result in losing nearly 60 cents for every dollar wagered over this 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as MLB teams typically cover the spread around 50% of the time. The White Sox's 21.2% ATS rate as home favorites is exceptionally poor and represents one of the worst trends in baseball betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.