The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Cubs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as three or more days rest, the Chicago Cubs are just 132-150-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -10.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +10.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record132-150-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size282 games
ROI-10.6%
Units Won-30.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201414-9-00.0%+16.2%
201515-12-00.0%+6.1%
20167-17-00.0%-44.3%
201714-15-00.0%-7.8%
201814-11-00.0%+6.9%
201915-13-00.0%+2.3%
202010-14-00.0%-20.4%
202110-14-00.0%-20.4%
20227-16-00.0%-41.9%
202310-17-00.0%-29.3%
202416-12-00.0%+9.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cubs' struggles with extended rest reveal a fundamental mismatch between their organizational philosophy and the realities of baseball rhythm. Chicago has historically built rosters around contact hitters and finesse pitchers who rely heavily on timing and feel rather than raw power. When these players sit for three or more days, they lose the subtle mechanical synchronization that separates good major league performance from mediocrity. This pattern becomes more pronounced when examining the Cubs' approach to roster construction during their competitive windows. The team's emphasis on high-contact, low-strikeout hitters means their offensive production depends more on barrel accuracy and pitch recognition than teams built around three-true-outcome players. Extended layoffs disrupt these delicate timing mechanisms, leading to weak contact and poor plate discipline that manifests in disappointing offensive outputs against the spread. The psychological component cannot be ignored either. Cubs players have consistently shown they perform better with consistent routine and momentum rather than stop-and-start scheduling. Their clubhouse culture has traditionally thrived on daily preparation rituals that extended breaks interrupt. Bettors should target fading the Cubs when they return from long layoffs, particularly in the first game back when rust factors are most pronounced and before they can reestablish their competitive rhythm.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago Cubs's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Chicago Cubs have an ATS record of 132-150-0 when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 46.8% ATS win rate over 282 total games.

Is betting on the Chicago Cubs as three or more days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Chicago Cubs with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -10.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Cubs in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Cubs' 46.8% ATS win rate with three or more days rest is below the expected 50% break-even point for ATS betting. Without specific league average data, this performance suggests the Cubs have struggled to cover spreads when well-rested compared to typical expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.