Chicago Cubs Home Favorite on Zero Rest Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Cubs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Chicago Cubs are just 12-40-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -55.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +55.9%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2015 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 2-7-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2018 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2019 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 2-8-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2021 | 1-3-1 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2022 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2024 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Cubs' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from a combination of roster construction issues and organizational philosophy that has persisted across multiple eras. Chicago has historically built teams around veteran position players and aging pitchers who don't recover as quickly from the physical demands of back-to-back games. When forced into situations where they're expected to win at Wrigley without adequate rest, these players often underperform the market's expectations. The psychological element compounds this physical limitation. Cubs players and management have shown a tendency to approach home games with less urgency when they're favored, particularly when fatigue is a factor. This creates a perfect storm where the team plays down to competition while oddsmakers overvalue their home field advantage. The Wrigley Field atmosphere, while electric for big games, doesn't provide the same boost when players are mentally and physically drained. Bettors should target Cubs opponents in these spots, especially when Chicago is laying significant chalk against divisional rivals who know Wrigley well. The trend becomes most valuable during summer stretches when travel fatigue peaks and the Cubs are coming off emotional wins that may have drained their focus for the following day's contest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Chicago Cubs's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?
The Chicago Cubs have a 12-40-1 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 23.1% ATS win rate over 53 games.
Is betting on the Chicago Cubs as home favorite on zero rest profitable?
No, betting on the Cubs as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable, with a -55.9% ROI. This trend has produced consistent losses for bettors over the past decade.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams hover around 50% ATS. The Cubs' 23.1% ATS rate in this situation represents one of the worst trends in baseball.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.