The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Cubs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Chicago Cubs are just 18-80-2 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -64.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +64.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record18-80-2
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size100 games
ROI-64.9%
Units Won-63.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-4-00.0%-61.8%
20152-4-10.0%-36.4%
20162-6-00.0%-52.3%
20173-8-00.0%-47.9%
20180-4-00.0%-100.0%
20191-7-00.0%-76.1%
20203-16-00.0%-69.9%
20211-11-10.0%-84.1%
20221-7-00.0%-76.1%
20234-6-00.0%-23.6%
20240-7-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cubs' historically poor performance as home favorites following losses stems from a toxic combination of psychological fragility and organizational inconsistency that has plagued the franchise for decades. When Chicago loses a game, the pressure of being favored at Wrigley Field the next day creates an amplified expectation that this team consistently fails to meet. The Cubs have long struggled with mental resilience, often allowing single losses to snowball into extended slumps, particularly when the betting public expects them to bounce back. Wrigley Field's unique conditions compound this issue. The ballpark's notorious wind patterns and day game scheduling can neutralize the Cubs' supposed advantages, making them vulnerable to underdogs who arrive with nothing to lose. Chicago's roster construction has frequently emphasized offensive potential over pitching depth, leaving them exposed when their bats go cold after disappointing losses. The franchise's boom-or-bust mentality means they either dominate or completely collapse, with little middle ground. Smart bettors should aggressively fade the Cubs as home favorites after any loss, regardless of the opponent or line movement. This trend carries maximum weight during the crucial months of May through August when the sample size grows and the psychological patterns become most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago Cubs's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Chicago Cubs have an 18-80-2 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 18% of games. This represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball betting.

Is betting on the Chicago Cubs as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Cubs as home favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -64.9% ROI. This trend has shown consistent losses over the 11-year period with virtually no winning seasons.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, where home favorites typically cover around 48-52% of games. The Cubs' 18% cover rate in this situation is an extreme statistical outlier.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.