The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Cubs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Chicago Cubs are just 36-175-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -67.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +67.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record36-175-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size211 games
ROI-67.4%
Units Won-142.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-17-00.0%-71.4%
20152-13-00.0%-74.5%
20161-20-00.0%-90.9%
20177-14-00.0%-36.4%
20183-21-00.0%-76.1%
20196-17-00.0%-50.2%
20203-12-00.0%-61.8%
20214-9-00.0%-41.3%
20222-20-00.0%-82.6%
20232-19-00.0%-81.8%
20243-13-00.0%-64.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cubs' historically poor performance as road favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and road reality. Chicago has long carried inflated public betting support, creating situations where oddsmakers set lines that don't accurately reflect their diminished capabilities away from Wrigley Field. The friendly confines provide unique advantages that simply don't travel - from wind patterns that can turn routine fly balls into home runs to a passionate home crowd that energizes clutch performances. When favored on the road, the Cubs face the double burden of elevated expectations and hostile environments where their offensive approach often falters. Their hitters, accustomed to Wrigley's dimensions and atmospheric conditions, struggle to adjust to different ballpark characteristics while simultaneously dealing with the pressure of being expected to win. The team's pitching staff also loses the benefit of familiar mound conditions and defensive positioning that comes from playing half their games in one venue. Smart bettors should consistently fade the Cubs as road favorites, particularly in divisional matchups where opponents know their tendencies intimately. This trend becomes most valuable during the summer months when Chicago's public backing peaks and oddsmakers are forced to inflate their road lines to balance action.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago Cubs's ATS record as away favorite?

The Chicago Cubs have a 36-175-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 36 of 211 games. This represents an extremely poor 17.1% ATS win rate in this situation.

Is betting on the Chicago Cubs as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Chicago Cubs as away favorites is highly unprofitable with a -67.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 67 cents for every dollar wagered on Cubs away favorites against the spread.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads over large samples. The Cubs' 17.1% ATS rate as away favorites represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.