The public often underestimates the Boston Red Sox in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Boston Red Sox hold a record of 52-30-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +21.1% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $17 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record52-30-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size83 games
ROI+21.1%
Units Won+17.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20146-4-00.0%+14.6%
20153-3-00.0%-4.5%
20167-1-00.0%+67.0%
20174-3-00.0%+9.1%
20185-0-10.0%+90.9%
20195-2-00.0%+36.4%
20202-2-00.0%-4.5%
20216-2-00.0%+43.2%
20224-6-00.0%-23.6%
20234-4-00.0%-4.5%
20246-3-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Red Sox's exceptional performance as small underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and their ability to thrive when expectations are slightly lowered. Boston's veteran core has historically responded well to being counted out, particularly in close matchups where the betting market views them as marginally inferior. This psychological edge becomes amplified when facing division rivals or quality opponents where the team's competitive pride kicks in. Strategically, manager Alex Cora has shown a knack for making tactical adjustments when his team enters games as slight underdogs. The Red Sox often deploy more aggressive baserunning and situational hitting in these spots, capitalizing on opponents who may approach the game with overconfidence. Their deep bullpen depth allows them to stay competitive in tight games, while their lineup's ability to work counts and drive up pitch totals creates late-game opportunities. The key insight for bettors is recognizing when Boston enters these spots against teams they've historically competed well against, particularly at Fenway Park where the unique dimensions favor their patient offensive approach. This trend matters most during interleague play and division series where familiarity breeds competitive intensity, especially in games with quality starting pitching matchups that keep spreads tight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Boston Red Sox's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?

The Boston Red Sox have a 52-30-1 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 63.4% ATS win rate over 83 games in this betting situation.

Is betting on the Boston Red Sox as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Red Sox as small underdogs has been highly profitable with a 21.1% ROI from 2014-2024. This strong return indicates consistent value when Boston is getting 1-3 points.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 63.4% ATS win rate significantly outperforms the typical 52.4% league average for covering spreads. The Red Sox have been one of the most reliable teams to back in small underdog situations.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.