Boston Red Sox Away Favorite Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Boston Red Sox in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Boston Red Sox are just 45-192-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -63.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +63.8%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-20-0 | 0.0% | -90.9% |
| 2015 | 4-22-0 | 0.0% | -70.6% |
| 2016 | 6-17-0 | 0.0% | -50.2% |
| 2017 | 3-15-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2018 | 5-11-0 | 0.0% | -40.3% |
| 2019 | 5-24-0 | 0.0% | -67.1% |
| 2020 | 1-14-0 | 0.0% | -87.3% |
| 2021 | 3-16-1 | 0.0% | -69.9% |
| 2022 | 10-20-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2023 | 3-18-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2024 | 4-15-0 | 0.0% | -59.8% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Red Sox's dismal performance as away favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and organizational identity. Boston has traditionally built teams around Fenway Park's unique dimensions, constructing lineups heavy on left-handed power hitters who exploit the Green Monster. This home-centric roster construction creates significant disadvantages on the road, where their pull-heavy approach becomes predictable and less effective in neutral ballparks. The psychological component cannot be ignored either. Red Sox players and management have historically embraced an underdog mentality that served them well during championship runs, but this mindset works against them when carrying favorite status in hostile environments. The pressure of meeting elevated expectations while navigating unfamiliar surroundings has consistently led to underperformance, particularly against motivated home underdogs playing with house money. Boston's pitching development philosophy compounds these issues. Their emphasis on maximizing Fenway's pitcher-friendly aspects for right-handed hurlers often translates poorly to road venues with different wind patterns and dimensions. The team's analytical approach, while sophisticated, has struggled to account for the intangible factors that influence road performance. This trend matters most when Boston travels to face rebuilding teams with nothing to lose, especially in day games following night arrivals where travel fatigue amplifies their road vulnerabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Boston Red Sox's ATS record as away favorite?
The Boston Red Sox have a 45-192-1 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024. This translates to an 18.9% cover rate, meaning they've failed to cover the spread in over 80% of games when favored on the road.
Is betting on the Boston Red Sox as away favorite profitable?
No, betting on the Boston Red Sox as away favorites is extremely unprofitable with a -63.8% ROI. This means you would lose approximately 64 cents for every dollar wagered over this 11-year period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams cover the spread around 50% of the time. The Red Sox's 18.9% cover rate as away favorites represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball betting.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.