The data suggests caution when backing the Baltimore Orioles in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as three or more days rest, the Baltimore Orioles are just 134-149-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -9.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +9.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record134-149-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size283 games
ROI-9.6%
Units Won-27.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201414-12-00.0%+2.8%
201511-15-00.0%-19.2%
201611-15-00.0%-19.2%
201713-15-00.0%-11.4%
201812-14-00.0%-11.9%
201913-12-00.0%-0.7%
202010-15-00.0%-23.6%
202111-12-00.0%-8.7%
202214-12-00.0%+2.8%
202310-14-00.0%-20.4%
202415-13-00.0%+2.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Orioles' struggles with extended rest reflect the franchise's historical reliance on momentum and rhythm-based baseball. Baltimore has traditionally built its identity around scrappy, contact-heavy lineups that thrive on consistent at-bats and defensive repetition. When players sit for three or more days, this timing-dependent approach suffers significantly, particularly affecting their ability to work counts and execute situational hitting. The organization's pitching development philosophy compounds this issue. Baltimore's rotation has often featured young arms or reclamation projects who benefit from regular work to maintain command and confidence. Extended layoffs disrupt these pitchers' feel for their secondary offerings, leading to elevated walk rates and mistake pitches that inflate run totals beyond what oddsmakers anticipate. The recent positive trend suggests potential organizational changes in preparation methods or roster construction, but the underlying sample size remains limited. Baltimore's offensive approach still favors aggressive early-count swinging, which becomes less effective when timing is compromised by lengthy breaks. Bettors should target Baltimore unders when they return from extended rest, particularly in divisional matchups where opponents understand their rhythm-dependent tendencies. This trend carries the most weight during April and after All-Star breaks when scheduling creates natural extended rest periods.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Baltimore Orioles's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Baltimore Orioles have a 134-149-0 record against the spread when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 47.3% ATS win rate over 283 games.

Is betting on the Baltimore Orioles as three or more days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Baltimore Orioles with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -9.6% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost nearly 10% of their investment following this trend.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the expected 50% break-even point for ATS betting. The Orioles' 47.3% ATS win rate with extended rest indicates they consistently underperform expectations in these situations compared to what oddsmakers project.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.