The data suggests caution when backing the Baltimore Orioles in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Baltimore Orioles are just 85-384-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -65.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +65.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record85-384-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size469 games
ROI-65.4%
Units Won-306.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-24-00.0%-40.0%
20157-40-00.0%-71.6%
20169-34-00.0%-60.0%
20178-45-00.0%-71.2%
20187-32-00.0%-65.7%
20198-41-00.0%-68.8%
20203-39-00.0%-86.4%
202111-38-00.0%-57.1%
20224-42-00.0%-83.4%
20238-27-00.0%-56.4%
20249-22-00.0%-44.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Orioles' catastrophic performance as favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and actual team quality during their rebuild years. When Baltimore was installed as favorites, it typically occurred in favorable matchups against weaker opponents or when facing struggling pitchers, creating inflated expectations that the team consistently failed to meet. The organization's systematic teardown and youth movement meant they lacked the veteran leadership and clutch performance necessary to capitalize on advantageous situations. Baltimore's struggles as favorites reflect deeper organizational issues during their competitive nadir. Young lineups often pressed when expected to perform, while inexperienced pitching staffs crumbled under the weight of expectations. The team's inability to execute in high-leverage situations became particularly pronounced when they were supposed to be the better club, creating a psychological burden that manifested in poor fundamentals and late-game collapses. The recent 5-5 form suggests some stabilization as the franchise's talent pipeline begins producing major league contributors. However, this historical pattern reveals that Baltimore has been most vulnerable when the betting market overvalued their chances against inferior competition. This trend matters most when the Orioles are moderate favorites (-130 to -160) against teams with comparable records, where the line often reflects temporary advantages rather than genuine superiority.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Baltimore Orioles's ATS record as as favorite?

The Baltimore Orioles have an 85-384-0 ATS record when favored from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 85 of 469 games. This represents an extremely poor 18.1% ATS win rate as favorites.

Is betting on the Baltimore Orioles as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Baltimore Orioles as favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -65.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents significant losses for bettors who consistently backed the Orioles when they were favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Orioles' 18.1% ATS win rate as favorites is dramatically below the typical league average of around 50% for ATS performance. Their -65.4% ROI indicates one of the worst favorite betting trends in MLB during this period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.