Atlanta Braves Home vs Division Rival Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Braves in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Atlanta Braves are just 76-82-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 8-9-0 | 0.0% | -10.2% |
| 2015 | 6-6-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2016 | 9-7-0 | 0.0% | +7.4% |
| 2017 | 7-6-0 | 0.0% | +2.8% |
| 2018 | 6-10-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2019 | 3-7-0 | 0.0% | -42.7% |
| 2020 | 9-9-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2021 | 4-4-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 6-12-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2023 | 6-5-0 | 0.0% | +4.1% |
| 2024 | 12-7-0 | 0.0% | +20.6% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Braves' mediocre performance against division rivals at home stems from the unique psychological dynamics of NL East competition. Division games carry heightened intensity and familiarity that can neutralize traditional home-field advantages. Opposing teams know Truist Park intimately, having played there multiple times each season, reducing the venue's intimidating factor that might affect unfamiliar visitors. Atlanta's recent improvement reflects their organizational maturity under manager Brian Snitker and a core group that's learned to handle division pressure better. The Braves historically struggle when expectations run highest at home against familiar foes, as fans and media amplify the stakes of these crucial matchups. Division rivals also tend to save their best pitching for these series, knowing how valuable head-to-head records become in tight races. The strategic element cannot be ignored either. Division opponents scout the Braves more thoroughly and adjust their approaches based on extensive video study and recent encounters. This creates a chess match that often favors the underdog, as visiting teams arrive with specific game plans tailored to exploit Atlanta's tendencies. This trend matters most during the final two months of the season when division standings tighten and every game carries playoff implications.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Atlanta Braves's ATS record as home vs division rival?
The Atlanta Braves have a 76-82-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.1% ATS win rate over 158 games.
Is betting on the Atlanta Braves as home vs division rival profitable?
No, betting on the Atlanta Braves as home favorites against division rivals is not profitable. The -8.2% ROI indicates consistent losses, with the team failing to cover the spread more often than they cover it.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is below the expected 50% ATS baseline and likely below league average. The negative ROI suggests the betting market may not be properly pricing the Braves in these divisional home matchups.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.