The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Braves in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Atlanta Braves are just 25-97-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -60.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +60.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record25-97-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size122 games
ROI-60.9%
Units Won-74.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-5-00.0%-68.2%
20153-11-00.0%-59.1%
20163-9-00.0%-52.3%
20174-3-00.0%+9.1%
20182-6-00.0%-52.3%
20193-7-00.0%-42.7%
20203-12-00.0%-61.8%
20211-10-00.0%-82.6%
20220-8-00.0%-100.0%
20232-14-00.0%-76.1%
20243-12-00.0%-61.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Braves' struggles as road favorites following defeats stem from a perfect storm of psychological and strategic vulnerabilities. Atlanta has historically been a momentum-driven franchise that relies heavily on offensive rhythm and clubhouse chemistry. When they lose a game, particularly on the road where they lack familiar surroundings and fan support, the team often experiences a confidence hangover that manifests in pressing at the plate and tentative pitching decisions. The franchise's approach to road trips has traditionally emphasized conservative roster management, often resting key players or using less experienced relievers in challenging spots. This strategy backfires when the team enters as favorites after a loss, as oddsmakers haven't fully accounted for Atlanta's reduced lineup depth or bullpen limitations. The psychological burden of being favored while dealing with recent failure creates additional pressure that younger Braves players have consistently struggled to handle. Atlanta's offensive philosophy, built around patient hitting and working counts, becomes counterproductive when facing motivated underdogs who attack the strike zone aggressively. The Braves tend to overthink their approach rather than trust their natural abilities. This trend carries maximum weight during divisional road series and interleague play, where unfamiliarity compounds the psychological challenges and creates the most profitable fade opportunities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Braves's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Atlanta Braves have a 25-97-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 25 of 122 games. This represents a 20.5% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Atlanta Braves as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Atlanta Braves as away favorites after a loss is highly unprofitable with a -60.9% ROI. This trend shows consistent losses for bettors backing the Braves in this situation over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 20.5% ATS win rate is significantly below the expected 50% league average for spread betting. The Braves' performance in this situation ranks among the worst trends in MLB, making it a strong fade opportunity.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.