The data suggests caution when backing the Arizona Diamondbacks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just 61-80-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -17.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +17.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record61-80-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size142 games
ROI-17.4%
Units Won-24.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20146-10-00.0%-28.4%
20158-8-00.0%-4.5%
20162-5-00.0%-45.5%
20179-6-10.0%+14.6%
20183-3-00.0%-4.5%
20191-8-00.0%-78.8%
20208-11-00.0%-19.6%
20215-6-00.0%-13.2%
20225-3-00.0%+19.3%
20238-10-00.0%-15.2%
20246-10-00.0%-28.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Diamondbacks' struggles against division rivals at home stem from several interconnected factors that create a perfect storm for underperformance. Arizona's young, developing roster often lacks the mental fortitude to handle the heightened intensity that comes with divisional matchups, where every game carries extra weight in standings implications. The team's pitching staff, historically inconsistent, tends to struggle more when facing familiar lineups that have extensive scouting reports and multiple exposures throughout the season. Chase Field's unique playing conditions, including its retractable roof and desert climate, can actually work against Arizona when hosting division opponents who visit multiple times per year and become accustomed to these conditions. The Diamondbacks also face a significant talent disparity within the NL West, regularly hosting powerhouse teams like the Dodgers and Padres who have deeper rosters and better coaching adjustments for divisional play. The psychological pressure of protecting home field against rivals often leads to pressing and overthinking, particularly evident in their recent struggles. Bettors should target fading Arizona at home specifically when they're facing division leaders or teams coming off strong road trips. This trend becomes most critical during summer months when divisional races intensify and the psychological weight of each home divisional game reaches its peak.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Arizona Diamondbacks's ATS record as home vs division rival?

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 61-80-1 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.3% ATS win rate over 142 games.

Is betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks as home vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks at home vs division rivals has not been profitable. The team shows a -17.4% ROI over this period, indicating significant losses for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the typical 50% ATS expectation and league average. The 43.3% win rate and negative ROI indicate the Diamondbacks have consistently failed to cover spreads in home divisional matchups.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.