The data suggests caution when backing the Arizona Diamondbacks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home after 2+ losses, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just 207-244-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.4%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record207-244-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size452 games
ROI-12.4%
Units Won-55.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201422-26-00.0%-12.5%
201518-16-00.0%+1.1%
201611-20-00.0%-32.3%
201721-26-10.0%-14.7%
201816-16-00.0%-4.5%
201918-24-00.0%-18.2%
202023-27-00.0%-12.2%
202124-21-00.0%+1.8%
202220-22-00.0%-9.1%
202316-23-00.0%-21.7%
202418-23-00.0%-16.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Diamondbacks' struggles as home favorites following multiple losses stem from a combination of organizational volatility and psychological pressure that has plagued the franchise for years. Arizona's front office instability and frequent roster turnover have created an environment where players lack the veteran leadership necessary to bounce back from adversity. When facing the dual pressure of ending a losing streak while being favored at Chase Field, younger players often press too hard, leading to mechanical breakdowns and poor decision-making. Chase Field's unique conditions amplify these issues. The ballpark's climate-controlled environment can mask a team's true form, creating inflated expectations when oddsmakers set lines. Arizona's pitching staff historically struggles with command in high-pressure situations, particularly when trying to stop bleeding after consecutive defeats. The franchise's boom-bust cycles mean they often lack the depth to weather injuries or slumps that coincide with these crucial bounce-back spots. Smart bettors should target Arizona's opponents when the Diamondbacks are laying chalk after back-to-back losses, especially against divisional rivals who understand their psychological fragility. This trend carries the most weight during summer homestands when expectations run highest and the desert heat can't be blamed for poor performance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Arizona Diamondbacks's ATS record as home after 2+ losses?

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 207-244-1 ATS record when playing at home after suffering 2 or more consecutive losses from 2014-2024. This translates to a 45.9% ATS win rate over 452 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks as home after 2+ losses profitable?

No, betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks at home after 2+ losses is not profitable, showing a -12.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Diamondbacks in this specific situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Diamondbacks' 45.9% ATS win rate in this situation is below the expected 50% break-even point and likely underperforms the league average. The -12.4% ROI suggests this trend performs worse than typical home favorites in similar circumstances.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.