The data suggests caution when backing the Arizona Diamondbacks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home games, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just 207-245-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record207-245-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size453 games
ROI-12.6%
Units Won-56.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201422-27-00.0%-14.3%
201518-16-00.0%+1.1%
201611-20-00.0%-32.3%
201721-26-10.0%-14.7%
201816-16-00.0%-4.5%
201918-24-00.0%-18.2%
202023-27-00.0%-12.2%
202124-21-00.0%+1.8%
202220-22-00.0%-9.1%
202316-23-00.0%-21.7%
202418-23-00.0%-16.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Diamondbacks' consistent struggles against the spread at home stem from several interconnected factors that create a perfect storm for underperformance. Chase Field's unique environment plays a significant role, as the retractable roof and air conditioning system can create unpredictable playing conditions that visiting teams often adapt to better than expected. The dry Arizona heat also affects ball flight differently than most stadiums, leading to inflated offensive expectations that don't always materialize in the betting lines. Arizona's organizational approach has historically favored young, developing talent over established veterans, creating inconsistent home performances as players adjust to major league pressure in front of their own fans. The team's pitching staff has particularly struggled with the psychological weight of protecting leads at home, often allowing late-inning rallies that turn covers into losses. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have shown a tendency to play down to weaker competition at home while simultaneously failing to meet elevated expectations against stronger opponents. The franchise's boom-or-bust offensive philosophy compounds these issues, as their all-or-nothing approach creates games that either blow past totals or fall frustratingly short of spread requirements. Bettors should exercise extreme caution when backing Arizona as home favorites, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds contempt and road teams arrive well-prepared for Chase Field's quirks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Arizona Diamondbacks's ATS record as home games?

The Arizona Diamondbacks have an ATS record of 207-245-1 in home games from 2014-2024. This represents a poor 45.8% win rate against the spread over this 11-year period.

Is betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks as home games profitable?

No, betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks in home games has not been profitable, showing a -12.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 12.6 cents for every dollar wagered on Arizona home games against the spread.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the expected 50% league average for ATS betting. The Diamondbacks' 45.8% home ATS win rate represents one of the weaker home betting trends in MLB over this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.